| Victory may prompt Brotherhood to water down pledges as realities bite |
CAIRO Mohamed Mursi’s victory in Egypt’s presidential election takes the Muslim Brotherhood’s long power struggle with the military into a new round that will be fought inside the institutions of state themselves and may force new compromises on the Islamists.
Stripped of many of its powers in the past week by the generals, the presidency Mursi is set to assume bears little resemblance to the one that Hosni Mubarak was forced to give up 16 months ago after three decades in charge. That, together with a host of other factors, will put a break on how much Mursi will be able do in office.
Despite the historic magnitude of his victory the chances of rapid changes in domestic or foreign policies appear faint. Some of Mursi’s more ambitious campaign pledges - his promise to implement sharia, for example - could well be shelved as the realities of office bite in a country that is deeply divided by the idea of Brotherhood rule.
As things stand now, Mursi does not even have a parliament to pass such legislation, even if he wanted to, although he will form both a presidential administration and appoint a prime minister and government. But the Brotherhood-led legislature, elected in January, was dissolved by the generals who have given themselves the power over legislation in its absence.
“The Muslim Brotherhood will take what they’ve got - a prize unimaginable to them 18 months ago. An imperfect presidency is way better than none at all,” said a western diplomat in Cairo.
“It’s part of the new and delicate act of political compromise - part of Egypt’s new cohabitation.”
The yet-to-be written constitution will set out the extent of the presidential powers and the role of the military establishment, which the Brotherhood has said appears bent on making sure it is written in a way that protects army interests.
The Brotherhood had secured a decent say in the body that started work on the constitution last week. But the generals have also given themselves new powers over the process, including the right to set up a new constitution-writing body if the existing one is deemed to have failed. A court, which sits on Tuesday, is to review a challenge to the legitimacy of the current drafting body.
And beyond the Brotherhood’s struggle with the military lies another, potentially more challenging opponent for Mursi: The entrenched interests of agencies accustomed to doing things the old way. The so-called “deep state”, including shadowy security agencies, will likely prove a major obstacle to change.
“Mursi will struggle to control the levers of state. He will likely face foot-dragging and perhaps outright attempts to undermine his initiatives from key institutions,” Elijah Zarwan, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said in Cairo.
“Faced with such resistance, frustration may tempt him to fall into the trap of attempting to throw his new weight around,” he added. “This would be a mistake.”
With a convincing, but far from crushing, 3.5-percentage point victory margin over Ahmed Shafik, Mubarak’s last prime minister, Mursi immediately faced calls to make overtures to those who have been alarmed by the Brotherhood’s rise. Among names cited by senior Brotherhood officials, reformist former UN diplomat Mohamed ElBaradei has been sounded out on his interest. Shafik also said he was available, if asked.
Reuters
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