Worrying trends
by
AJ Philip |
Erratic rain in India is a symptom of global climate change
Mainstream newspapers now lead with reports of monsoon failure, while millions of farmers across the country keep their fingers crossed. There is no certainty about how exactly the monsoon has failed with government figures at variance with that of farmers and their organisations but nobody disputes the fact that the shortfall during the first two months of monsoon — June and July — has been nothing but alarming.
In a state like Kerala, where poets and novelists have written extensively about the torrential monsoon rains that keep artisans, farmers and fishermen indoors and in the grip of poverty, the dams and other water reservoirs have only 20 per cent water. Acute power shortage seems to be a possibility in the southernmost state which is, otherwise, surplus in power.
In the rain-deficient areas of neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the farmers wonder whether they would be able to grow at least one crop this year. In the western states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, the governments concerned contemplate declaring the states drought-hit. In the wheat and rice bowls of Punjab and Haryana in the north, where a modicum of artificial irrigation exists, the farmers may not be as despondent as their counterparts elsewhere but they too are worried.
The farmers have every reason to be upset with the meteorological department which, as late as early June, had predicted that the monsoon would be normal, if not plentiful. In other words, all the sophisticated satellites India has launched and the meteorological observatories that have been set up have not come to the aid of the cloud-gazing farmer.
Even 65 years after independence, two-thirds of India’s agricultural fields are irrigated solely by rainwater and a staggering 600 million people, out of a total population of roughly 1.24 billion, are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. The tragedy in the making should be seen against this grim backdrop. The only comforting thought is that droughts are not uncommon, though famines no longer occur, thanks to the public distribution system. The granaries are full and there are, therefore, little chances of starvation deaths, unlike in the past, when a little drought caused the death of thousands of cattle, the first to be hit. The national rural employment guarantee scheme will also ensure that no able-bodied person would remain unemployed.
In other words, the country would be able to face the consequences of the failure of monsoon, even if the rains in August and September do not make up for the shortfall so far. However, what is worrying planners, farmers, environmentalists and scientists is the fear that erratic monsoons are just symptoms of a deeper malaise that needs to be tackled in right earnest.
Ask an elderly farmer in Kerala and he will tell you that with each passing year, monsoon is becoming weaker and weaker in the state. He is not wide of the mark as his view is substantiated by the finding that there has been a 4.5 per cent decline in monsoon in the two decades preceding the year 2009.
Scientists predict that the decline in rainfall will be greater in the coming years, which means monsoon will have to be redefined. Needless to say, less-stable monsoon patterns will make the life of the farmer miserable. The thought that should worry is whether all this is the result of the global climate change that cannot be wished away.
The melting of the glaciers in Siachen and the growing inability of wheat plants to bear the heat in the north are all symptomatic of the global phenomenon that should worry one and all. A few years ago, Mumbai received such heavy rains on one day that the drainage system collapsed completely, leading to death and devastation. Similarly, drought-prone areas in Rajasthan now witness floods, neither the people nor the administration is familiar with.
All this points to climate change, which alas is not even understood by most people. If the failure of monsoon this year is just a cyclical failure, there is nothing to be afraid of, as a drought in one year is usually followed by bountiful rains in the next but if it is part of the global climate change, PDS stocks and the British-drafted famine codes are not the solution.
Far more fundamental steps need to be taken to reduce global warming for which recognition of the problem is the beginning. Alas, that does not seem to engage the attention of meteorologists, for whom the failure of the monsoon is just a repeat of such failures in the past. Therein lies the greater tragedy.
Oman Tribune |
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