Out of the groove
by
Javed Hafiz |
Increased bilateral trade will strengthen peace lobbies on both sides
Security can be broadly divided into two categories, military security and economic security. After becoming an atomic power in 1998, Pakistan should have focused all its attention on economic security. I remember in my college days in 1960’s that the Pakistani economy had fulfilled all preconditions to reach the take off stage. Or at least that is what our economics professor used to tell us at Government College Lahore. This was in the context of five stages of economic development then enunciated by the famous economist W W Rostow. Alas wars with India and Bhutto’s nationalisation, based on political emotionalism, dwelt serious blows to the budding Pakistani economy. But now that the era of wars is over, Pakistan should make economic development its foremost priority.
Nations should use history to learn lessons and not for chest-beating or self pity. Today Pakistan is afflicted with two serious issues, poverty and terrorism, in that order. The two are inter-linked in a symbiotic relationship. Poverty breeds a sense of alienation that leads to a search for radical solutions. Poverty reduction, job creation and the spread of education are by far the best methods of fighting extremism. Poverty reduction is only possible through economic development and fair distribution of wealth. Complete economic equality amongst individuals is a utopia which has never been achieved in history. All individuals have different talents and circumstances. The role of the state, as a neutral umpire, is to provide level playing field to all citizens.
The Pakistani people and the economy have shown remarkable resilience time and again. As the current picking seasons comes to a close, Pakistan expects to produce over 15 million bales of cotton, an all-time record. And Goldman Sachs has recently included Pakistani stock markets in the 11 most important emerging markets of the world. Rahim Yar Khan, as a district, is the largest cotton producer in Pakistan today. Textile is the largest industry and 60 per cent of Pakistani exports are textiles or textile-related. About 10 million families are supported by this sector through direct or indirect jobs. So the news of a bumper cotton crop is a happy omen for Pakistani economy.
The recent decision of the Pakistani cabinet to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India is the most important economic development. For a long time, Pakistani policy was that opening of full bilateral trade relations with India was contingent upon progress in resolution of political problems first. That thinking has now changed and it is a welcome sign. Living and thinking nations do not remain stuck in the grooves of the past but keep revising their policies in accordance with new imperatives. Nations, like all living organisms, morph , mutate and take different connotations over time. Anatol Lieven, the author of the well known recent book entitled, Pakistan-A Hard Country, argues that the Pakistani quest to improve things has not died and therefore Pakistan cannot be labelled as a failed or failing state. In fact, he takes issues with Tariq Ali, the well-known erstwhile leftist writer, who talked of Pakistan’s death as a nation state way back in 1983. Lieven retorts that 29 years on the deathbed is long by any standards!
Pakistan’s geographic location on the crossroads of major historical trade routes and close to energy rich Iran and Central Asia has enhanced its geo-economic importance. Imagine hundreds of Indian trailers going to Kabul and beyond via Pakistan on a daily basis. Also think of millions of kilos of Iranian and Turkmen natural gas passing over Pakistani territory to India. The transit fee alone will amount to billions every year. And a couple of million jobs would be created by these huge economic activities. It is in the Pakistani national interest to create those jobs to fight poverty and counter extremism. Increased bilateral trade will strengthen peace lobbies on both sides which may lobby with their respective governments for resolution of political issues.
The Pakistani cabinet has also decided to eliminate the negative list by the end of this year. That means all kind of Indian and Pakistani goods could be traded. The abolition of informal trade and shipping via third countries will bring prices down and benefit consumers. Pakistan imports much of its newsprint from Sweden while similar products can be brought from India at much cheaper rates .I know Pakistani industrialists have concerns that the market will be swamped by Indian goods but they will slowly but surely learn to compete. And they should be working from now on to take full advantage of a huge Indian market. Regional economic and commercial engagement can revive the Pakistani economy and take it to a much higher growth rate.
Oman Tribune |
Other comment for Javed Hafiz
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