Blessing in disguise
by
Javed Hafiz |
US mistreatment may push the Pakistani nation towards self reliance
Pak-US relations have been on the brink lately. And posturing by the generals, on both sides, have made it worse. General John Allen, the commander of international forces in Afghanistan said there was no guarantee that 26/11 type incident would not occur again. From the Pakistani side, Lieutenant General Ashfaq Nadeem, director general, Military Operations, told the journalists that in future Mohmand-like attacks will get a befitting response from the Pakistani side. Such posturing can be risky as things can get out of hand, at times. Luckily, the more recent statements from both sides are much more temperate and measured. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta has said it loud and clear, that reaching out to Pakistan was essential.
Touchwood, there have been no drone attacks and suicide bombings in Pakistan for almost a month now. Right wing parties say their argument of Pakistan paying the price of siding with the US in this war stands proven. They also argue that suicide bombings were a direct corollary of drone attacks and revenge for killing innocent people. I think their logic is rather simplistic and self serving. The lull in suicide bombings and relative tranquillity that we see in Pakistan today has resulted from a number of factors. Some Taliban factions, particularly in Bajaur Agency, have entered into peace talks with Pakistani authorities. The Pakistan government’s robust stand on Nato supplies and Shamshi( my friend Dr Aeyat Ullah Durrani, who hails from Balochistan, says that Shamsi is wrongly pronounced) airbase vacation has also blunted the Taliban wrath. And last but not the least Taliban have suffered heavy casualties in Pakistan and are a weakened force now.
A US congressional panel has decided to freeze $700 million worth of assistance to Pakistan and made it conditional to stopping the smuggling of ammonium nitrate into Afghanistan. It is a chemical component used by the Taliban in Afghanistan to make improvised explosive devices (IEDs) which have inflicted heavy losses to the Nato forces. Now ammonium nitrate is a simple fertiliser marketed to farmers all over Pakistan. To stop the smuggling of this material is humanly impossible. Firstly it is not a prohibited or restricted material in Pakistan and elsewhere. Secondly, the Pak-Afghan border is long, porous and hilly. And smuggling this material by individuals or groups on their person or in their vehicles is no big deal. Thousands of persons cross this border daily. The Pakistani proposal to fence the border even partially has been spurned by Kabul, more than once. Under the circumstances, the condition of completely stopping the smuggling of ammonium nitrate seems ludicrous.
2011 has been a very bad year in Pak-US relations. From the Raymond Davis episode to the unilateral Abbotabad operation to the Mohmand assault, the relationship has gone from bad to worse. If this trend continues and Nato forces achieve little in Afghanistan, Pakistan will be made the scapegoat for that defeat. Some US generals are already claiming victory in Afghanistan and that is farfetched. A clear cut victory is rarely possible in any guerilla war. The premature claim of victory in Afghanistan reminds me of similar claims in Iraq. Now the US achievements in Iraq have, at best, been dubious. Coming back to the Pak-US relations, anything is possible. But one thing is certain that repairing this relationship will take long, even if there is political will in both countries. So there is a possibility that relations may further worsen.
However, I think that both parties do not want a breakdown of relations. With its current financial problems, Pakistan can ill afford such a breakdown of ties. With a messy situation in Afghanistan, the US can ill afford to annoy Pakistan further. This realisation on both sides may save the relationship, at least for the foreseeable future. The new terms of engagement are being worked out. The nature of current relationship will be directly affected by the results of Nato enquiry into 26/11 assault. Though on this issue and decisions taken about Nato supplies and Shamshi base, Pakistanis are united, the civil military divide on other issues is an open secret now. With such a fragmentation within, Pakistan can ill afford to take on a superpower.
At the recent envoys’ conference, Pakistan did put up a show of unity. It also conveyed a message that even a weak Pakistan expected others to show a modicum of respect for its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Who knows US mistreatment may push the Pakistani nation towards self reliance and may be a blessing in disguise! However, both sides need to proceed with caution and avoid posturing.
Oman Tribune
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