Disaster ahead
by
AJ Philip |
India’s population size sends shivers down the spine of every planner
Luck did not favour Nargis, born to Ajay and Vineeth, near Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh (UP) on October 31. She should have been declared the seven billionth person in the world like Adnan Nevic of Sarajevo, Bosnia, who was declared the six billionth. Unfortunately for her, the United Nations decided not to confer this honour on anyone, perhaps, because there were conflicting claims from the Philippines, Russia and other countries.
Nonetheless, her birth caused quite a bit of enthusiasm in the country with every newspaper publishing pictures of the child and the mother and television channels covering the event extensively. The parents are indeed proud to have Nargis and there is every possibility that she will get utmost care and attention as she grows up. That is because she is special.
Otherwise, UP, India’s most populous state, where 11 babies are born every minute, is not a girl child-friendly state as statistics bear out. According to the 2011 census, there were only 908 women for every 1,000 men in the state. If UP was an independent nation, it would have been the fifth most populous nation in the world, though its economy is smaller than that of the tiny state of Qatar.
For UP, a redeeming fact is that there are states like Delhi and Haryana where the sex ratio is lower at 866 and 877 respectively against the national average of 940. The only state where women outnumber men is Kerala, though the ratio is not maintained in the case of children belonging to the 0-6 age group. The skewed sex ratio is not the only worrying demographic trend. The sheer size of India’s population sends shivers down the spine of every planner.
The world population is believed to have taken 250,000 years to reach the one-billion figure around the year 1800, while it took only 12 years to add one billion to make the total 7 billion. With a population of 1.21 billion, India accounts for 17.5 per cent of the world population, second only to China that constitutes 19.4 per cent. India’s headcount is almost equal to the combined population of the US, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
A silver line on the otherwise dark horizon is that there is a perceptible decline in the growth rate of population. Fertility has declined to 2.6 children per woman, which is less than half of its 1950-level. It will take a few more decades for India to reach the 2.1 fertility level, considered the replacement level. India will show a negative growth rate only by the year 2050 when the world population would have crossed the 9-billion mark.
By then India’s population would have surpassed China’s. Of course, demographers contend that India would have a younger population, compared to budget-straining ageing population in countries like Japan and China. However comforting such a thought may be, India cannot run away from the reality of overcrowding that is already felt in its urban areas.
As of now, the validity of the statement that “India lives in its villages”, attributed to Mahatma Gandhi, cannot be questioned. However, the growing level of urbanisation is an index of transformation of the Indian society from the traditional to the modern. Small wonder that the urban population grew by 31.8 per cent, against the 12.2 per cent growth rate recorded in rural areas during the 2001-2011 period. In other words, urbanisation is a growing phenomenon from which there can be no escape.
Cities continue to attract people from the villages who are in search of jobs and better living standards, putting severe strains on their infrastructure. Take the case of Delhi where every day 1,317 new vehicles, including two-wheelers, are registered. However, the roads remain the same. Last fiscal only 59kms of road was added to Delhi’s road length. That means more vehicles jostle for space on the limited network of roads leading to more traffic snarls.
Sanitation, water and electricity, housing, education and health are other sectors where demand and supply do not match, causing widespread public resentment. Until a few decades ago, Bangalore with its salubrious climate was considered a paradise for the retired but today it is bursting at the seams.
In the 1980s when then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi called Calcutta (Kolkata) “a dying city”, the Calcuttans protested vociferously, though they knew in the heart of their hearts that what he said was indeed true. Much the same will have to be said about other cities, if adequate planning is not made to welcome the Nargises born at the rate of one a second in India.
Oman Tribune |
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