Path to Afghan peace
by
Javed Hafiz |
Osama Bin Laden’s demise opens an avenue for peace
Osama Bin Laden’s demise opens an avenue for peace in Afghanistan. The US came to Afghanistan in 2001 chasing Bin Laden. Now that the objective has been achieved, the search for a durable peace settlement in Afghanistan becomes that much easier. Both sides to the conflict are war weary and they want to move on to a peace settlement that would endure. While Secretary Clinton talks of “diplomatic surge” both Kabul and Islamabad want the negotiations for peace to start sooner rather than later. Unlike Washington, Kabul and Islamabad are for peace talks without any preconditions.
The US speaks of three preconditions for any peace talks with the Taliban. These are a renunciation of violence, severance of links with Al Qaeda and acceptance of the Afghan constitution. Some Taliban groups are ready to renounce violence. Bin Laden’s exit also makes the second condition easier to achieve as Taliban solidarity was more with him rather than his organisation. However, acceptance of the constitution, in its present form, would pose problems as Taliban has not been part of the process of its formulation. Mulla Umar, Haqqani and Hekmatyar still insist that no talks are possible while their country is under occupation. In this regard, Mulla Umar has a more rigid stand.
Islamabad and the Karzai government in Kabul are of the common view that these conditions should be the final aim of talks and not the first post to be crossed. The US also wants a strategic agreement with Kabul under which it would maintain a shrunken presence in Afghanistan after 2014. It envisages the building of six military bases there on the premise of training the Afghan National Army. This proposal would not find favour with Afghanistan’s immediate neighbours, Pakistan, Iran and China. It would also afford Taliban a pretext to continue their resistance to foreign presence at some level, post 2014.
There are clear indications that the way for a diplomatic surge is being paved. The new US general to replace Petraeus has a reputation of being less hawkish. He has the experience of the peace process in Iraq. Marc Grossman, who has replaced Holbrooke as special envoy, has already started working for reconciliation in Afghanistan, as per his mandate. An international conference on Afghanistan is to be held in Bonn later this year to which the Taliban could be invited.
The next couple of months are crucial for peace in Afghanistan. While Islamabad and Karzai are for peace overtures like a ceasefire, the Americans want to talk to the Taliban from a position of strength. They want to fight and talk simultaneously. The other day, I broached this subject with Adam Thomson, the British high commissioner in Islamabad. He appeared quite optimistic about the peace prospects in Afghanistan. He stressed that efforts will have to be made with Islamabad and New Delhi to narrow their differences. Similarly positions taken by the US and Pakistan will have to be brought closer. When I asked whether any reconciliation would at all be possible in Afghanistan without Iranian participation the high commissioner replied that Iran would be on board.
Any peace deal in Afghanistan would face implementation problems. It was perhaps for this reason that the United States wanted to continue its presence in that country. The deep Tajik-Pashtun divide in Afghanistan makes any long term consensus well nigh impossible. The ground reality is that Pashtuns are the single largest ethnic group in Afghanistan. However, this reality is not reflected in the power structures in general and security forces in particular. The officer corps is mostly drawn from the Tajik minority and this anomaly ought to be corrected. There is a symbiotic relationship between the Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Therefore, for Pakistan it is absolutely essential that the Pashtun belt of Afghanistan is stable and peaceful within its own country.
Ideally Afghanistan should be a neutral nation with friendly relations with all neighbours. This can be possible only if all neighbours undertake not to cross the red lines mutually agreed upon. In case any neighbour elects to cross the red line, then the government in Kabul should be strong enough to rectify that. When the Afghan government will build up the capacity to govern its populace well and to deal politely but firmly with its neighbours, remains to be seen. The task of bringing peace to Afghanistan is truly a Herculean task but it must be supported to the hilt. Afghanistan has been a festering wound now for more than three decades. The Afghan people deserve a break. |
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