Troubled government
by
Javed Hafiz |
As if Maulana Fazalur Rehman’s decision to quit the federal government was not enough of a jolt to the government, the MQM has decided to withdraw its ministers from the federal cabinet. But interestingly, it would still sit on the treasury benches. Will the MQM estrangement create major problems for the government? And is it real parting of ways or a mere political ploy to extract more concessions from the ruling People’s Party? We shall try to address these questions in the following lines.
The MQM is vitally important for the People’s Party from the numerical angle. The National Assembly has a total of 342 seats. A majority vote here translates to 172. Without the support of MQM, the ruling coalition can muster merely 158 votes. That means no legislation can be done without MQM on board. MQM has 25 seats in the National Assembly. With its support, the ruling coalition enjoys strength of 183 votes. MQM has made the latest move keeping in view its crucial importance for the government. People’s Party trouble shooters are running helter-skelter to reassure their estranged coalition partner. And the estranged partner knows fully well it can extract concessions.
From the beginning, the MQM has maintained its independent stance on some issues. It said no support would be lent to the passage of the infamous National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) in the parliament. Of late, even General Musharraf has conceded that NRO was his mistake. Lately, the MQM has refused to support a government move to impose a 15 per cent general sales tax. So while remaining in the government and enjoying the perks, the MQM took stances different from the government. It knew that the government could not do without its support. Secondly a moral stand on the NRO and opposition to the proposed sales tax are popular with its vote bank in Karachi and Hyderabad.
I think that the current impasse is a separation and not a divorce between the coalition partners. For the last two decades, the MQM has been part of almost all governments in Islamabad and Karachi. It knows that sitting on the opposition benches entails sacrifice of perks and clout. MQM has ostensibly left the government ministries posing to protest against corruption and poor governance. Now these two problems did not start yesterday. Therefore, policy and posture appear to very different here. What is it that the MQM really wants?
First of all, the MQM wants a free hand in the Sindh urban centres. The unfettered power that it has enjoyed there is under threat from various quarters. Sindh Home Minister, Zulfiqar Mirza’s statement that MQM workers were involved in target killings in Karachi was embarrassing. In recent years, the Pashtun population in Karachi has swelled to three million. Consequently, the MQM street power has been dented. It feels vulnerable in its traditional stronghold, Karachi. Hence the demand for early local government elections. Distancing itself from the unpopular ruling coalition can also be politically beneficial. But with all their differences, the People’s Party and MQM have a symbiotic relationship, more so in Karachi, which cannot be governed without latter’s support.
Mercifully, the potential opposition to the government is in total disarray at the moment. Muslim League (Nawaz) and MQM have just had a terrible mudslinging match which left a bad taste in every body’s mouth. MQM leader, Altaf Hussain challenged Nawaz Sharif to a live debate and alleged that Nawaz had been nursed by the military dictators. Muslim League accepted the challenge saying that since Altaf was a foreign national, it could also facilitate his visa to come to Pakistan for the debate! There is no love lost between Nawaz Sharif and Chaudhry Shujat Hussain either. They are both claimants to the Lahore throne. In such a scenario, there is no credible shadow government in Pakistan. The rulers can take some solace from that.
General elections in Pakistan are now only two years away. If the MQM does not support the government, the annual budget cannot be passed in June. Maulana Fazalur Rehman has meanwhile called for the Prime Minister Gilani to be replaced by another leader from within the People’s Party. There is a talk of an in-house change here. It could give a breather to this troubled government. From various speeches and statements, it seems, political leaders have already started preparing for the next elections. Even if an MQM-People’s Party compromise materialises, it would appear that the government would limp to the next elections.
To me the chances of compromise appear bright. Both People’s Party and MQM need each other. Had MQM been serious in parting ways with the government, it would have decided to sit on the opposition benches. By not doing so, it has left the reconciliation door deliberately open. If the MQM can force a decision for early local government elections, it can revive its fiefdom in Karachi. The chances are that MQM will take the ministries back and the government would continue with or without Gilani as Prime Minister.
(Javed Hafiz is Pakistan’s former ambassador to the Sultanate)
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