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Thursday, May 23, 2013  
Interesting times

by Javed Hafiz
Sharif-Zardari relations come under scanner

Pakistan is passing through interesting but trying times. As expected, the Supreme Court has reopened the case of 3rd November 2007 emergency measures. While the court would be fully justified to reverse those actions, a complete cancellation of those measures will open Pandora’s Box. It may call into question the validity of February 2008 elections. The Supreme Court will therefore have to tread carefully.

     Keen observers of Pakistani political scene see turbulence ahead. The Supreme Court is hearing an interesting case and can pronounce definitively on PCO judges who took fresh oath under the Provisional Constitution Order of 3rd November 2007 and the National Reconciliation Order (NRO), among other things. The chief justice and his sacked colleagues were restored last March under public pressure. They are beholden to none but the people of Pakistan. Imbued with a strong desire to deliver justice and leave a positive legacy, Chief Justice Iftikhar Chowdhury is quite capable of taking bold decisions.

NRO was the most detested ordinance issued by President Pervez Musharraf. It paved the way for Benazir-led opposition to return to Pakistan as all corruption cases against her and her colleagues were withdrawn. A People’s Party leadership returned to Pakistan. It managed to assume power largely due to the sympathy vote in the wake of Benazir’s assassination. The other party to benefit from the NRO was the MQM whose members got relief in dozens of cases. The irony is that while the common man languishes behind the bars for small crimes, those who have huge charges against them are in power.

The NRO was soon challenged in the court. Stalwarts like Dr Mubashir Hassan and Roedad Khan moved the courts to quash this ordinance. Chief Justice Chowdhury had in fact issued a stay order against the NRO just before being sacked on 3rd November, 2007. His views on the subject are well known. Pakistan has several upright and honest people who would never compromise on principles. They are a ray of hope at the end of the tunnel.

Nawaz Sharif- Asif  Zardari relationship has come under close scrutiny in recent days. Both met in Lahore after a gap of eight months. Overwhelmed by problems, Zardari wanted PML (N) to rejoin the federal government. The meeting in Lahore could not achieve a breakthrough and ended with a mere vow to undo the 17th amendment to the constitution. In addition to low credibility, Zardari’s popularity is now rock bottom. Nawaz Sharif, bitten more then once, is more then twice shy. Moreover, he would not like to join a government which is unpopular.

Some people believe that if NRO is annulled, President Zardari would be directly affected. This may not be correct as under the constitution, as the president enjoys immunity. However, some of his close colleagues like Rehman Malik and Salman Farooqui as well as some MQM leaders could be negatively affected.

Questions are being raised about PML (N) and its leader Nawaz Sharif’s current posture. The situation is nearly explosive and they are not ready to agitate in the streets. Many Pakistanis are simply flabbergasted at the PML (N) acting as a “friendly opposition.”  What explains this peculiar policy?

In my assessment, Nawaz Sharif has been advised by the powers that be within Pakistan and abroad not to rock the boat at a time when Pakistan is fighting crucial battles against terrorism. Secondly, Nawaz Sharif could be expecting the situation to get even worse and lead the people to agitate against the government at an opportune moment. Thirdly, the current problems are so acute that the PML (N) does not want to assume the reins of power through early mid-term elections. It is waiting for better times, perhaps next year.

Prime Minister Gilani is trying to assert himself. He wants more powers for his office and for parliament.  Both the parliament and the judiciary are now seized of a revision to the 17th amendment, which gives extraordinary powers to the president, and a decision is expected soon. It is almost certain that some of the presidential powers will be clipped. Enjoying PML (N) support and more popularity than Zardari, Gilani now feels more confident.

As I write these lines, former president Musharraf has been asked by the Supreme Court to defend his emergency measures either himself or through his lawyers. Musharraf has decided to constitute a team of lawyers to defend him. Meanwhile, PML (N) is also advocating that Musharraf be tried for toppling the government in 1999 and subverting the constitution. However, in the current scenario, that is not likely to happen anytime soon. But the mere fact that a former military ruler has been summoned to the court is a historic first. Pakistan is indeed passing through interesting but also trying times. 

(Javed Hafiz is Pakistan’s former ambassador to the Sultanate).

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