From Swat to Waziristan
by
Javed Hafiz |
Mullah Omar’s policy will be put to test
With the Swat operation nearing completion, the theatre of war is shifting to Waziristan, the stronghold of Baitullah Mehsud. For a variety of reasons, the Waziristan operation will be different. Unlike Swat, Waziristan is vast, barren and thinly populated. It borders Afghanistan and inter-Taliban cooperation is a possibility. Though Mullah Omar disapproves of attacks on Pakistani personnel, this policy will be put to a severe test.
More than a hundred soldiers and officers of the Pakistan Army were killed in Swat. Most of them were from the Special Services Group, a segment that gets the very best men. As per general rule, the ratio of soldiers against militants, in a guerilla war situation should be 10:1. Pakistan Army achieved its objective with a ratio of 3:1.While the success in this operation has been a big morale booster for the army, one has to admit that the top militant leaders of Swat are still at large.
The Swat operation is the first one being followed through to its logical conclusion. Earlier operations in Swat and Fata were terminated in the middle in favour of peace deals which did not work. Since Taliban have regrouped after each operation, the government has decided to establish a permanent military base in Swat. This step has been appreciated by the IDPs and locals who fear that the Taliban can make their lives difficult, yet again.
Operation in Waziristan is going to be a different ball game. It is a treacherous terrain where Taliban have a sizeable presence. If he comes under pressure, Baitullah and his men may retreat to neighbouring Afghanistan. The terrain is ideal for guerilla warfare and Mehsud men know the battle ground like the back of their palms.
The Pakistani Taliban, the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda are all united on one thing; to oust the foreign forces led by the US from this region. On the other hand, Kabul, Islamabad and Washington have a degree of trust deficit among themselves which makes their coordination less than perfect. The coming months are crucial and demand a high degree of cooperation between the US and Pakistani personnel.
There was opposition to Baitullah in his own tribe until recently. Qari Zainuddeen, who emerged as Baitullah’s formidable foe, was killed. But Qari Zainuddin’s fighters are believed to have been in control of Karak, a gateway to Waziristan. The other gateway, Bannu, is being tightly controlled by the security forces. The idea is to seal infiltration and exit points and confine the Taliban forces within their area. By eliminating Zainuddin, Baitullah has proven that he will offer tough resistance.
Additional US forces are coming to Afghanistan, under a new policy which is a mix of military power, dialogue and economic development. More immediately, the US wants to ensure peaceful and credible presidential elections in Afghanistan. It is, therefore, essential that the Taliban have no safe havens on either side of the border.
Some analysts have been questioning US sincerity in war against terror by saying that US drones have never targeted Baitullah Mehsud despite credible information provided by the Pakistani side about his location. They see some sinister designs in this policy. However, the US drones now have targeted Baitullah’s village Makeen. Although the government of Pakistan officially protested against this attack, it seems that the US and Pakistani perceptions of Baitullah are finally converging.
The added heat and pressure generated by the military action in Swat has obliged Al Qaeda to rethink its strategy. There are reports that some Al Qaeda elements are moving from Af-Pak to the Horn of Africa.
Within Pakistan there is now a rare consensus against terrorism. Taliban have never been so unpopular in the country as they are today. They have themselves earned this unpopularity through acts of cruelty and indiscretion. Attacks on the Sri Lankan cricket team, public flogging of a girl and senseless killing of a scholar of Dr Sarfraz Naeemi’s calibre changed the public opinion. Mainstream political parties and religious scholars now openly condemn Taliban policies.
For the first time, a number of hard core terrorists have been arrested for atrocities within Pakistan. Success of Swat operation has encouraged the army to move into Waziristan, once again. However, this will be a longer and more difficult operation. It will have to depend more on air power and use of special forces. Political dialogue and effective administrative machinery on ground are equally important. An imaginative and consistent policy, a good mix of military power and civilian management, are essentials for a final victory. More importantly, the tribes must be reassured that this is a war against militants and not against them.
Javed Hafiz is Pakistan’s former ambassador to the Sultanate. |
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