Iran-US relations
by
Javed Hafiz |
As expected, the US policy towards Iran is being revised with the arrival of Obama administration. This development is of great interest for all nations in the region. Iran, a country of 70 million, sits on vast energy resources. It has a great location between the Gulf and the Caspian Sea, both endowed with rich energy sources. Apart from its situational importance, Iran has a rich history and a proud cultural identity.
Although Iran-US relations carry a heavy burden of 30 years of mutual mistrust, to the young Iranians, slogans like “Death to America” appear obsolete. Over the last three decades, US attempts to change Iranian behaviour by marginalising it politically and economically failed in achieving their objective. Indeed labels like ‘axis of evil’ by former president George W Bush helped in unifying the Iranian political factions. Nations, like individuals, seek respect from similar entities. In case of Iran, it sought to be treated with respect by the superpower in recognition of its regional role.
President Obama wisely chose important seasonal and cultural festivity of Nawruz to make his overture to the Iranians. “My administration is now committed to diplomacy that addresses full range of issues before us, and to pursuing constructive ties. This process will not be advanced by threats. We seek instead engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect.”
Official Iranian media virtually ignored the overture for a day or two. Meanwhile, a considered Iranian response was being prepared at the highest level. For Iran, President Obama’s initiative was too important to be ignored as it also implicitly vindicated Iranian policy of steadfastness. The Iranian reply said, “The Iranian nation has shown that it can forget hasty behaviour but we are awaiting practical steps by the United States. The Obama administration so far has just talked; it has to make fundamental changes in its policy towards Iran.”
While displaying sensitivity to the Iranian culture, President Obama also quoted from the prominent Iranian poet Saadi saying that all human beings were one entity. The message clearly depicted that constructive diplomacy and engagement were preferred US choices in dealing with Iran. The two countries have indeed a lot to discuss. Important issues include Iraq, Afghanistan, nuclear proliferation, Arab-Israeli conflict, energy and Gulf security. While President Obama was polite but firm, the Iranian reply was equally measured and strong. What “fundamental” changes do Iranians expect from the United States? Obviously they want recognition of their regional role. But their regional role is invariably at a tangent from the role of other important regional nations friendly to the United States. So a lot of fine tuning and re-alignments would be required on both sides over the coming years.
Post 9/11, the Unites States gave Iran two important gifts inadvertently. The ouster of Saddam Hussein and the fall of Taliban removed major foes from the scene, easing the Iranian threat perception. Any future settlement in Iraq and Afghanistan will have to take cognisance of the Iranian point of view. It not only has deep interests in both the neighbours but also wields considerable influence.
The Unites States wants Iran to use its influence in Iraq and Afghanistan in order to settle these problems. In fact Iran cooperated with the United States in the wake of 9/11 in Afghanistan. Iran saw US role of fighting Taliban and Al Qaeda as positive. This cooperation continued till President Bush opted to label Iran as part of the ‘axis of evil.’ Now the United States wants to use Iranian airspace and the land route via port of Chahbahar for supplies to Afghanistan. Iran has been invited to an international conference on Afghanistan at the Hague.
First step to normalisation would be resumption of diplomatic ties. This could be a major issue in the Iranian presidential elections due this June. It would appear that Iranian people are not as opposed to the United States as their government. However, decision making in Iran is opaque. Iran has a number of power centres like the Revolutionary Guards, the Guardian Council, the presidency and the Parliament. Their inputs are invariably sought before a decision is taken. All these power centres are headed by men loyal to the spiritual leader. From the Iranian response, it is clear that US-Iran relations will be supervised from the top, by spiritual leader himself.
This relationship has good potential as Iran also needs relations with the West to prop up its sagging economy. Trade and investment sanctions have hurt Iran. Iranian air force has suffered due to lack of spare parts. Iran needs western technology to modernise its industry.
That Obama’s policy on Iran is informed and nuanced; it augers well for the relations. However, tangible problems remain and the Iranian nuclear programme would be the toughest nut to crack. The United States would continue to use multilateral diplomacy and pressure in this regard. Coming months would witness some very interesting developments in the US-Iran relations. However, mistrust of decades will take time to be removed and replaced by mutual confidence and respect.
Javed Hafiz is a former Pakistani ambassador to the Sultanate. |
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