Foreign policy challenge
by
Javed Hafiz |
There is a degree of ambivalence about Obama in Pakistan. In the beginning there was hype about his being a Muslim, which has since died down. His election statement of physically chasing the terrorists into Fata, “If Pakistan was unwilling or incapable of doing so”, was a candid, indeed blunt message.
Having visited Karachi for three weeks in the 1980s, Obama knows Pakistan better than Bush, who, during the 2000 campaign, was not even sure that Musharraf was the Pakistani leader. His mother is said to have worked for an NGO in Pakistan for a while. In a recent interview, Obama has said he would “try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that they (Pakistan) can stay focused not on India but on the situation with those militants.” Like other new migrant minorities, Americans of Pakistani origin overwhelmingly voted for Obama, some out of love for him and others out of disdain for George Bush!
There is little doubt that the Pak-Afghan border areas, with an explosive mix of Pashtun nationalism and radicalism (bolstered by US bombings) will be Obama’s biggest foreign policy challenge. “Iraq is yesterday’s problem” said an Obama adviser recently. Someone in the US government said a couple of months ago that Iraq was a war by choice, while Afghanistan was a war by compulsion.
There is a perceptible feeling in Pakistan that some of its neighbours had joined hands with the United States to destabilise Fata. Obama advisers are reported to have told him that, as a crucial partner in the war against terror, Pakistan needed to be reassured on that count. Therefore, the Obama administration may try to assuage those negative perceptions in Pakistan.
Since Obama foreign policy will be less unilateral, a democratic Pakistan should be able to have a more meaningful and effective dialogue with the new administration. While Bush focused on Iraq, Obama will do so on Afghanistan. However, dialogue and diplomacy will get a fairer chance now.
The new US administration will try to wean away the reconcilable segment of Taliban from the diehard ones and Al Qaeda. It is also likely to attach greater importance to developmental activities in Afghanistan and Fata. Therefore, the new US policy on fighting terrorism will be closer to the triangular policy of Pakistan based on dialogue, economic development and use of military force as a last resort. The use of soft power to win hearts and minds in Afghanistan, would be a first US option now. This should be reassuring to Pakistan.
The US economic assistance to Pakistan will continue, over the years, after passage of the Lugar-Biden bill. However, development assistance will now get priority over military assistance. Pakistan should try to get more assistance for infrastructure, energy and social sectors. Diversion of assistance from military to civilian projects will be a welcome change. However, given the challenge in Fata, capacity building programmes for the Pakistani paramilitary forces will continue.
The US has a big image problem in Pakistan. US drone attacks have killed more Pakistani civilians than Al Qaeda operatives. In the Obama presidency, a policy of cooperation in Fata, as opposed to unilateral moves, may get a fairer chance. This may repair the negative image of Bush era, to an extent. US drone attacks harm Pakistan as much as the suicide bombings by the Taliban. This should stop. A strong and stable Pakistan is essential to fight terrorism and religious extremism. Pakistan’s crucial role was once again acknowledged in a briefing at the US Embassy in Islamabad this week.
Obama’s campaign statement of physically intervening in Pakistan has been interpreted in the country as election rhetoric. However, the mantra of “Do more or else, we will” is likely to continue. With its tight economic position, Pakistan’s options will be limited. Pakistan has already suffered a lot because of US failure in Afghanistan and this is likely to continue, unfortunately. Any ultimate solution in Afghanistan will have to be regionally and internationally guaranteed. United States and Pakistan will figure prominently in such an arrangement in addition to India, Iran and other important countries. The Bush administration has been opposing dialogue between Pakistani authorities and the Pakistani Taliban while itself approving the dialogue with the “good Taliban” in Afghanistan. One hopes that during the Obama presidency this contradiction will go.
General Wesley Clark, former Nato commander and an Obama supporter has urged Washington to stop drone attacks in Fata and to help Pakistan. “I think it is a dangerous thing for stability in the region to be too heavily overtly involved there. But on the other hand, Pakistan needs support and assistance. And its government and military are in a very tough fight. I think the more we can help Pakistan to do this work themselves, the better off we are”, he said in a recent interview with CNN.
General Clark also advised the US government to be careful in defining success in Afghanistan. He advised a regional approach that should seek to address Pak-India tensions over the Kashmir dispute. Pakistan and the United States can ill afford to ignore each other at this juncture. Their symbiotic relationship, not necessarily a great friendship, will continue in the Obama presidency. The more they cooperate with each other, the better for peace, security and stability in the region.
(The writer is a former ambassador of Pakistan to the Sultanate)
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