Love and hate
by
Javed Hafiz |
As the US presidential elections draw close, there is a renewed interest in the informed circles in Pakistan for a fresh look at the bilateral relationship. This relationship has oscillated in cycles ranging from engagement to estrangement. If we consider the volume of economic and military assistance, the size of current trade, the number of Pakistanis living, working and studying in the US and remittances sent by them, this relationship assumes a vital importance. However, an ordinary Pakistani’s attitude to these elections and their outcome reflects indifference bordering on cynicism. This cynicism has resulted from the US viewing the bilateral relationship in cost-benefit and issue related terms as opposed to the eastern thinking patterns where friendships and relations are long term and can outlive issue related interests. However, this romantic view of international relations is flawed as inter-state ties are different from personal relations.
It is a historical coincidence that Pak-US relations have witnessed their peaks during Republican administrations and sanctions have mainly been imposed during Democratic terms. The foundations of a close relationship were laid during President Eisenhower’s period, which were the days of US ascendance in a Cold War environment. The US passion to fight Communism was at its peak. Pakistan, a new Muslim nation, was seen as an ideal partner. President Ayub Khan, a British trained officer, undertook to extend full cooperation to the US including allowing it an airbase near Peshawar. In return, Pakistan got the much needed assistance, mostly military. The common Pakistani had little knowledge of the airbase arrangement, untill the infamous U-2 incident. This shows that from the very beginning Pak-US relations have been predominantly of a military nature and, therefore, less than fully transparent. Both sides now realise the necessity of changing this character and add more civilian content to relations with greater focus on social sector development.
In the days of President Reagan the relations again warmed up due to the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. His Pakistani counterpart, President Zia ul Haq was a staunch Muslim who abhorred Communism and was convinced that after consolidating in Afghanistan, the Soviets would march further into Pakistan with the aim of reaching the warm waters. Pakistan and the United States then trained and motivated thousands of religious zealots for the war. The Soviet Union was ousted finally but Pakistan and Afghanistan continue to suffer the consequences of that war. This strategic feat was achieved without any physical US intervention in Afghanistan. The next peak in relations came in the wake of 9/11 again under Republican President, George Bush. This time around the issue was the war on terror. Thus Pak-US relations have been driven by intermittent issues and the understanding was confined, more often than not, to the top leaders.
The current relations are characterised by the US trying to impose its agenda on Pakistan. The neo-conservative jingoist Bush administration has brought much destruction around the world, including the Pakistani territory of Fata. With overlapping ethnic links across the Durrand Line, this has created a fusion of Pushtun nationalism and Islamic radicalism. Pakistanis have keenly listened to the presidential and vice-presidential candidates’ views during debates. They were surprised by the question which bracketed Pakistan and Iran. Even more disappointing was Joseph Biden’s response that Pakistani missiles could hit Israel and beyond. This shows the ignorance of an expert on foreign policy issues. While Obama is more open on strikes inside Fata if Pakistan does not act, McCain says the same but more discreetly. The difference between the two is only of nuances. However, a major US intervention in Pakistan even by a president Obama appears a remote possibility. Firstly, Pakistan itself is engaged in effective operations in Fata and secondly Pakistan is no easy target and Fata is a very difficult terrain to fight in. Abdul Rehman Rashed, a noted Arabic columnist recently wrote in Sharaq Al Awsat that a US attack on Pakistan would make wars in Iraq and Afghanistan look like picnics. Considering the traditional relations and the current stance of Pakistan on terrorism the chances of a combat look very remote.
Pakistan wants a bilateral relationship based on mutual trust and respect for its territorial integrity. The Pakistani people detest US bombings in Fata and coercive statements. The next US administration has to develop a more imaginative, tactful and sensitive policy towards Islamabad. On the other hand a stable and prosperous Pakistan cannot emerge without controlling religious extremism, rapid economic development and settlement of all outstanding issues with India. A proactive US policy in the region would be helpful on all three counts. This calls for a long-term engagement as opposed to cooperation on sporadic issues. To give a new people-centred character to relations, the new US administration should consider high profile economic development or social sector projects in Pakistan. This can be done through the funds that will be earmarked by the Lugar-Biden proposed bill. The battle for the hearts and minds is better won through soft power.
It is safe to presume that whosoever wins the elections, Pakistan for its geo-political importance will remain vital for the next US administration.
Javed Hafez is a former Pakistani ambassador to the Sultanate. |
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